A look at what’s happening around the majors on Sunday:PLAYO

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A look at what’s happening around the majors on Sunday:PLAYO

Messagede panxing18 le Dim Avr 28, 2019 2:56 am

last scheduled day of the regular season will see all 15 games begin within 15 minutes of each other — a perfect setup to settle a pair of NL division races.The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are tied atop the NL Central going into Game 162. Mike Montgomery (5-6 Chris Sabo Jersey , 3.99 ERA) starts for the Cubs vs. St. Louis at Wrigley Field, while the Brewers hadn’t announced their pitcher to take on the Tigers at Miller Park.The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies are all even in the NL West. Walker Buehler (7-5, 2.76 ERA) was listed to pitch as the Dodgers visit San Francisco, trying to win their sixth straight division title. The Rockies, who’ve never finished in first place, face Washington at Coors Field.The Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers and Rockies have all clinched playoff spots, but want to avoid wild-card peril. If the divisions are tied after Sunday, they’ll go to tiebreakers Monday at Wrigley Field and Dodger Stadium — the winner advances to the Division Series, the losers meet Tuesday in the one-and-done wild-card game.CROWNING ACHIEVEMENTMilwaukee outfielder Christian Yelich goes into the final day with a chance to become the first Triple Crown winner in the National League since Joe Medwick in 1937 for St. Louis.Yelich holds a sizable edge in the batting race at .324 and his 36 home runs are tied for most in the league with the Cardinals’ Matt Carpenter. Yelich only trails in the RBIs column — he has 109 and Javier Baez of the Cubs leads with 111.Yelich, in his first season with the Brewers, faces Detroit rookie Spencer Turnbull at Miller Park. The last Triple Crown winner in the majors with Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera in 2012.FAREWELLS?No telling who will go where this winter. But this could be free agent-in-waiting Bryce Harper’s final game for Washington, veteran outfielder Adam Jones’ last day with Baltimore and manager Mike Scioscia’s wrapup in the Angels’ dugout.SKIP HIMOn his last day as Toronto’s manager, John Gibbons will let catcher Russell Martin run the club at Tampa Bay. Martin hasn’t played since Sept. 3 because the Blue Jays are looking at younger catchers.“I’m having a little fun with it,” Gibbons said. “Let him see how tough it is.”The Blue Jays said this week that Gibbons won’t return as manager next year. Yeah, Verlander. And I’ll prove it."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsReviewing Astros Trades, 2014-2018, Part VIII. The Greatest Trade of All Time.New,10commentsYeah http://www.redsfanproshop.com/authentic-cliff-pennington-jersey , Verlander. And I’ll prove it.CDTShareTweetShareShareReviewing Astros Trades, 2014-2018, Part VIII. The Greatest Trade of All Time.Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsIntroductionThis is part eight of a series analyzing Astros trades from 2014-2018. For a review of the methodology and caveats go to Part I here.This is a review of how the trades turned out, understanding that at the time the trades were made the teams involved used the best information available to maximize the chances of an advantageous transaction. But all trades are based on probabilities, and like any form of gambling, the actual outcomes may not be those desired. So this is not intended as a criticism of the trades at the time they happened, but just a review of how lady luck eventually blessed each trade in the end.The TradeAugust 31, 2017, 11:59:59 PMBreakdown:In the last second of the last minute of the last hour of the waiver trading deadline, OF Daz Cameron, P Franklin Perez and C Jake Rogers were sent to the Tigers for P Justin Verlander and PTBNL Juan Ramirez. The Tigers agreed to pay $8 million/year of the remaining two years of Verlander’s $28 million/year salary.At the time of the trade only Franklin Perez was considered a Top 100 prospect, although all three were highly prized by the Astros organization.What the Tigers got:With his overall athleticism Daz Cameron in high school was once considered a possible first pick overall. He was drafted by the Astros in the first round of the 2015 supplemental draft which came to the Astros as part of the trade that brought Jake Marisnick and Collin Moran from Miami for Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez. At age 21 Cameron tasted AAA last year, and had an .837 OPS in AA.His ETA according to Fangraphs is 2020, and is the 107th prospect in MLB. His future value rating is 50. the perspective of the Astros. Here’s why.Any trade that wins a championship is a great trade. It doesn’t matter if the Astros traded young Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and Ted Williams, and thrown in Cy Young as the player to be named later, it is 100% certain that the Astros would not have won the World Series without Justin Verlander. That’s what you play for, and if you’re a team like the Astros the chance for that ring comes very rarely. And yet, even when a team takes the chance and pulls the trigger on a trade like this, it seldom works. This time it did. Without Verlander they would have almost certainly lost to the Yankees in the ALCS in five games. Wins now are worth more than wins later. Especially if they are wins that advance a championship drive. The players the Astros surrendered may produce 13 wins for the Tigers someday Anthony DeSclafani Jersey , probably more, but maybe less. But when a team accepts prospects for a proven player they take risk, and with risk should come greater eventual reward. Considering the unexpected resurgence in Verlander’s performance on the Astros, the Tigers gave up more than they expected.They probably at least want their $8 million a year back.Three players worth2 wins each does not equal one player worth six wins. It is relatively easy to find and or replace a 2 WAR player. There were 45 pitchers with WAR between 1.8 and 2.8 last year. There were six with WAR greater than 6. Three 2018 Gio Gonzalezes does not equal one Justin Verlander. Give me Verlander and find two other just guys.Why This is the Greatest Trade of All TimeOne could find dozens of trades that yielded more wins than this one will. In the end, by that criterion, the Astros may actually end up the net loser.But this trade was not about winning regular season games. They had the division easily wrapped up. It was about winning playoff games, and winning a championship, the first in the team’s history. If your team loses the last game of the season, the other ones don’t really matter. This was the greatest trade in history because never before did one trade alone make such a quick, total and decisive difference between a team not winning a championship and winning it. For no other trade could it be said more definitively that without the player added the team would not have won the championship, and with him it did. In a seven game ALCS, in which the losing team actually scored more runs, the Series MVP had a Win Probability Added of an astronomical .90. No conceivable replacement for Verlander could have come close to matching his performance, and without it the team never sniffs the World Series.A few trades are close contenders. 1.The 2000 trade of Curt Shilling to the Diamondbacks, but that took a year to yield the trophy2. The 2016 trade of Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs, but when Aroldis was called on to close out game seven he failed at the most decisive moment in the very thing he was acquired to do. The Cubs won that game despite their rented closer. The Cubs would have won the NLDS, the NLCS and the World Series without Chapman, the only decisive contribution he made being the Game 5 save in the World Series. His .23 WPA in the Series does not compare in importance to what Verlander did to get the Astros into the Series.Anyway, Verlander ate up over 34 playoff innings in 2017. Could you imagine what the score of those games would have been if the Astros’ playoff bullpen had to replace those?3.The 1998 trade of Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox was a steal, but it took six years for Martinez to put the Sox over the top.4. I don’t count the Yankees purchase of Babe Ruth as a trade Adam Duvall Jersey , but I was surprised to learn that it took three years for Ruth to yield a World Series victory for the Yankees, that he only won four total with the Bombers, and actually won three titles with the Red Sox.This one trade is the closest challenger for Greatest Trade of All Time.Frank RobinsonFrank Robinson, after a slightly down year, was traded by the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Milt Pappas. Robinson had his greatest season, winning the Triple Crown, MVP, and hitting 1.047 OPS with 49 home runs. He produced 7.7 bWAR. We’ll round that up to eight.The Orioles were 97-63 that year, compared to a slightly over-achieving 94-68 the previous year. They finished third without Robinson, and finished first in the AL in 1966 with him, with the help of Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Dave McNally, and rookie JimPalmer. They beat out an illustrious Minnesota Twins team that included Tony Oliva, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, and Mudcat Grant. There were no play-offs then.The Orioles finished nine games ahead of the Twins, and given that Robinson created eight wins by this very approximate measure called WAR, it’s too close to call whether or not the Orioles would have won the AL pennant without Robinson. Nor can you quantify the effect a player of Robinson’s energy Michael Lorenzen Jersey , enthusiasm and skill would have on the performances of the other players on the team, but by all accounts it was immense. Yet clearly Justin Verlander had that effect on his new team as well.I should mention that if the Orioles had kept Pappas he would have added 2.7 bWAR.The Orioles beat the LA Dodgers 4-0 in the World Series, taking down Hall of Famers Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax.Robinson was MVP with an OPS of 1.232 and two home runs, one of which won game four, 1-0. His WPA was .27. (For comparison George Springer’s WPA in the 2017 World Series was 1.04)The Orioles outscored the punchless Dodgers 13-2, so it seems that even if it had taken more games, the Orioles still would have beaten the Dodgers without Frank Robinson. But again, how does the absence of the team leader, the man you know brought you there, effect everyone else’s performance?Here’s a few scenes from this World SeriesIt’s a really hard call to say whether or not the 66 Orioles would have won the World Series without Frank Robinson.My gut says no, but the numbers are a little more fuzzy.Without Verlander the 2017 Astros do not win the ALCS or the WS,that is FOR SURE.So, by my definition that the greatest trade is the one that you can’t win the World Series without, I say the Verlander trade still wins the title Greatest Trade of All Time.Note: If anyone knows a more decisive trade, explain in the comments. And yes, I know Frank Robinson was also instrumental in the Orioles 1971 World Series as well, with the help of four 20 game winners. Maybe Verlander will bring the Stros a second World Series too!
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